Countries in the region must address policy and regulatory issues to ensure that they can play their part in contributing to the global pledge to triple renewables capacity worldwide by 2030

Key takeaways

• At the COP28 summit in 2023 more than 130 countries committed to tripling global installed renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030
• On current projections and trajectories, none of the six ASEAN markets studied will succeed in tripling their renewables capacity by 2030
• Vietnam and Singapore are the only countries that, based on current trajectories, will meet their own renewables ambitions by 2030. Notably most of the other countries’ ambitions either meet or surpass the tripling target.
• There is significant political interest in deploying renewables across the region, but many obstacles remain, with policy and regulatory frameworks being a key stumbling block to the rapid deployment of renewable energy

Introduction

ASEAN countries have recently stepped up in their climate commitments, including through multiple pledges to stronger climate action at the latest COP28 summit in Dubai. Brunei, Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam were amongst the 61 countries that signed the Global Cooling Pledge that aims to mitigate 68% of emissions from cooling by 2050.[1] Notably, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand were part of the more than 130 national governments that endorsed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which focuses on tripling global installed renewables capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030.[2]

The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables report provides accounts and forecasts of global and regional progress towards the triple capacity goal. For the Asia Pacific region (excluding China), renewable energy (RE) capacity is projected to increase by 73% from 2023 to 2028, totaling around 430 GW.[3] India will account for half, while ASEAN countries are expected to contribute 14%, or 60 GW, to this growth. In total, ASEAN countries’ 2030 renewables ambitions amount to over 225 GW. Vietnam is a leader with a goal of 84 GW, followed by Indonesia at 44 GW and the Philippines at 30 GW.

This article discusses how the ambitions of each ASEAN member state measure against the COP28 pledge to triple global capacity by 2030. We will also look at the likelihood of reaching either goal based on current projections.

Regional projections

While the ASEAN region has great potential for accelerated renewables deployment, questions remain around the implementation of its various commitments. Under current policies and market conditions, the largest six ASEAN economies’ combined renewables capacity is projected to reach 139.5 GW by 2028.[4] Under a similar continued trajectory, this would rise to 177 GW by 2030. This would fail to meet both the combined ambitions – 203.2 GW and the global goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030 – 280.8 GW. Notably, this is in line with global trends.

Based on current growth projections, only Vietnam and Singapore are expected to reach their 2030 renewables capacity goals. Even then, Vietnam’s and Singapore’s 2030 projected renewables capacity will remain short of tripling their 2023 numbers. While guided by notable renewables ambitions, countries in the region still need to address challenges related to fossil fuel overcapacity, sluggish renewables deployment, financing challenges, as well as obstacles based on policy and the regulatory landscape.

Country	2023 capacity	2028 projection	2030 trajectory	Meet 2030 ambitions?		Meet 2030 triple target?
Vietnam	50.3	73.4	85.1	84.5	Yes	150.9*	No
Indonesia	13.4	26.1	32.9	44	No	40.2	No
Philippines	9.1	17.1	21.5	29.6	No	27.3	No
Thailand	13.7	17.6	19.1	24.3	No	41.1	No
Malaysia	6	13.5	16.7	18.5	No	18	No
Singapore	1	1.8	2.5	2.3	Yes	3	No
ASEAN-6	93.6	133.8	177.86	203.2	No	280.8	No

All numbers in Giga Watts (GW)

*Vietnam is notably disadvantaged in this analysis having hosted explosive solar growth in 2017-2019, see Vietnam section below for more.

Fig.1: Chart comparing renewables capacity, projections, trajectory, ambitions, and tripling target

Sources and methodology:

• 2023 renewables capacity is based on IEA or other internationally recognized sources
• 2028 projections are based on IEA or other internationally recognized sources
• 2030 trajectory is based on the 2028 figures, extended by an average of the annual growth in renewables capacity in that market between 2021 and 2028
• 2030 ambitions are based on government targets, as reported by IEA and other internationally recognized sources
• Triple target is based on 2023 renewables capacity, as per COP28 commitment

Market-by-market analysis

Vietnam

Vietnam will not triple its 2023 capacity by 2030, but it is important to note that Vietnam is at a disadvantage in this analysis following an explosion of solar development from 2017 to 2019. A tripling of renewables capacity between 2023 and 2030 would be more than 150 GW, almost double the total electricity generation capacity of the entire country in 2022.[9] Based on figures before solar took off during this period – 17.2 GW – the country’s current 2030 ambition would easily be a tripling of their capacity pre-2017.

The Vietnamese government views renewable energy (RE) as part of the solution to respond to growing electricity demand. Having developed wind and solar, the country also envisions developing its hydropower and bioenergy capacity. The much anticipated and newly adopted National Electricity Development Plan includes renewable capacity targets for 2030 and assumes significant deployment of wind (24 GW) and hydropower (7 GW). Vietnam also signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement in 2023, which is expected to boost renewable energy growth.

While Vietnam’s renewables capacity ambitions and progress are notable, the government still needs to increase transmission and distribution grid investments and provide new policy support, such as competitive auctions, to fill the gap since 2021, when the last feed-in tariff expired. Should these efforts be taken, Vietnam has the potential to add about 45% more capacity, according to the IEA’s accelerated case forecast.[10]

Indonesia

Indonesia’s 2030 total renewables ambition stands at 44 GW[11], the second highest in the ASEAN region. This figure is slightly larger than triple its 2023 capacity, which was 13.4 GW.[12] Between 2023 and 2028, the country is expected to increase its renewables capacity by 14 GW, more than four times the growth of the previous six years.[13] Half of this growth will come from deployment of utility-scale PV and hydropower, in addition to 1.75 GW of geothermal power. The share of renewables in its power generation is also expected to reach 20% by 2028, a 1% increase from 2022. However, given that Indonesia’s RE capacity is forecast to reach only 26.1 GW by 2028, reaching its 2030 ambition will be a tall order. Our projections indicate that based on previous growth trends, Indonesia will only reach 32.9 GW of capacity by 2030.[14] This would fall short of 2030 ambitions – 44 GW – and a tripling of its 2023 capacity – 40.2 GW.

Meanwhile, the government has set ambitious climate targets to meet growing energy demand and reach zero emissions by 2060 or earlier. Policymakers are additionally discussing implementation details for Indonesia’s RE targets and supporting policies. Given the decreasing costs of renewable technology costs, the country is also expected to accelerate RE deployment in the next few years, especially for PV systems.

Nonetheless, challenges limit Indonesia’s renewable capacity growth. Despite its major role in the energy transition, the power sector remains the largest contributor to the country’s emissions. The national utility PLN is still constrained by pre-existing contracts with coal- and gas-fueled power plants, all while highly optimistic expectations for electricity demand growth have resulted in overcapacity in the country’s power system. This means that at least in the largest regions (Java and Bali), there is little room for new RE until 2030. Further, the country’s policy and regulatory barriers pose additional challenges for swift capacity growth. Resolving these challenges would enable the country to at least double its forecast RE growth.

The Philippines

The Philippines, like Indonesia, has an ambitious goal to increase its 2030 RE capacity by over triple its current amount, driven by the view that faster deployment of low-cost renewables could grant many other economic benefits.

By 2030, it aims to reach 29.6 GW total renewables capacity, 3.3 times its 2023 capacity of 9.1 GW.[15] Its renewables energy expansion between 2023 to 2028 is projected to amount to 9 GW, a fivefold increase from the previous five-year period.[16]

Yet, the country will likely fall short of its 2030 ambitions. In 2028, the country is expected to have a capacity of 17.1 GW, mostly accounted for by solar PV and wind, driven by the Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP).[17] Our analysis shows that under current growth trends and projections, the Philippines will likely reach 21.5 GW capacity by 2030.[18] This projected capacity is a notable increase from current figures but falls short of reaching the country’s 2030 ambition – 29.6 GW – and the aim to triple its 2023 capacity to 27.3 GW.

In 2022, the government updated the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040 to target 35% renewable energy in the generation mix by 2030 and 50% by 2040. The same year, the government allowed more foreign ownership of RE assets to increase investment and accelerate capacity deployment. The government also aims to double the geothermal share in RE capacity from 12% to 24% by 2040. In 2020, it introduced new mandates for utilities to increase their use of RE sources by 1% annually. Currently, the country’s share of RE in power generation is expected to increase from 23% in 2022 to 27% in 2028.[19]

Still, the country suffers from grid connection delays, high financing costs, complicated permitting processes, and inadequate transmission infrastructure.[20] Renewables growth in the country could be 66% higher than the current predictions if the government addresses these challenges.[21]

Thailand

Thailand has a total renewables capacity ambition of 24.3 GW by 2030. Its 2023 renewables capacity is estimated to be 13.7 GW, led by bioenergy and hydropower. The country is expected to add around 4.5 GW of renewables capacity between 2023 and 2028. Primarily driven by distributed PV applications, its 2028 renewables capacity will reach 17.6 GW. Under the current capacity growth trajectory, Thailand will likely have a capacity of 19.1 GW by 2030.[22] This falls short of both the renewables ambitions of 24.3 GW and commitments to triple 2023 capacity by 2030 41.1 GW. 

The country has announced several ambitious climate commitments and plans for increased renewables capacity deployment. At COP26, the Prime Minister pledged to carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero emissions by 2065. The country’s Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) aims for a 30% share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2037. Additionally, the Energy Regulatory Commission has introduced a new feed-in-tariff regime in force until 2030. The government also aims for 10 GW of rooftop PV capacity by 2037 with a deployment schedule of 100 MW annually until 2027 and another 1,000 MW afterwards.

The government deems rooftop PV as economically attractive, and as such is expecting commercial and industrial electricity consumers to invest in the technology. More generally, renewable energy growth in the country is mostly motivated by fiscal incentives such as accelerated depreciation, import duty waivers, tax exemptions, and green bonds for RE projects.[23] Meanwhile, the country’s share of renewable energy in power generation is forecast to remain constant at 18% between 2022 and 2028. If not for inadequate transmission infrastructure, high energy storage costs, high financing costs, and land and space limitations, among others, RE deployment in Thailand could be almost 50% higher than current forecast.[24] 

Singapore

Singapore’s 2030 renewables capacity target stands at 2.3 GW[25], 2 GW of which is planned to come from solar.[26] While ambitious, this is an achievable target if certain conditions are met.[27] By 2028, the IEA projects Singapore to reach 1.8 GW capacity. With current growth trends and projections, Singapore is on track to reach almost 2.5 GW of capacity by 2030.[28] This would meet its renewables ambitions of 2.3 GW but fall short of commitments to triple 2023 capacity to 3 GW by 2030.

Meanwhile, its current renewables capacity stands at 1 GW and is comprised mostly by distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) systems and bioenergy.[29] The share of renewable energy in its power generation is also forecast to grow from 5% in 2023[30] to 7% by 2028, with solar power being the main contributor.[31]

There has been minimal investment in renewable energy in Singapore in recent decades. As of 2020, solar energy only accounted for 0.08% of the country’s total energy consumption, while fossil fuels like oil and natural gas accounted for around 98%. The country’s small amount of land, coupled with low wind speeds and large ports that limit tidal energy, explain the lack of opportunities for renewables capacity expansion. In addition, Singapore imports renewable energy from its ASEAN neighbors, including Malaysia and Laos.[32]

Nevertheless, the country has robust renewables targets for the coming decades, driven by local solar energy production and clean energy imports. To respond to growing electricity demand, the government sees power generation coming through investments in RE in neighboring countries, depending on progress with energy integration in the region overall. The government plans to supply 30% of its energy needs with low-carbon imports by 2035. While around US$200 billion is needed to upgrade the region’s grid infrastructure by 2030, Singapore has the potential to lead the region’s collective efforts.[33]

Malaysia

Malaysia has committed to increasing renewables composition to 70% of its total power generation capacity by 2050, a target which will require a more than tenfold increase in 2023 capacity. To achieve this ambitious goal, the government plans to expand renewable capacity from 6 to 14 GW by 2025[34] and to 18.5 GW by 2030 – tripling current capacity.[35]

However, according to current growth trends, Malaysia is falling short of its 2025 RE capacity goals and is projected to reach 13.5 GW of capacity in 2028 and 16.7 GW in 2030.[36] This would fall short of both national ambitions and commitments to triple 2023 capacity by 2030 at around 18 GW.

In line with its policy commitments, recent policies and developments can still reverse Malaysia’s trajectory and place it on track to meet its 2030, and 2040, goals.

For one, the Ministry of Economy has announced the end of cross-border trade barriers for renewable energy. The government has also pledged to not approve any new coal-fired power generation plants. Additionally, to further grow its clean power industry and non-fossil power generation, Malaysia plans to lift the ban on RE exports implemented in October 2021.[37] The Green Investment Tax Allowance grants companies subsidies for adopting RE, upgrading energy efficiency, constructing “green buildings” or undertaking integrated waste management projects.[38]

An estimated investment of MYR 637 billion (US$143 billion) will be required to carry out its net zero goals, which the government has said will be spent on grid infrastructure, energy storage systems, and network system operating costs.[39] In the meantime, the government has allocated MYR 50 million (US$11.2 million) to install rooftop solar systems in government facilities across the country.

---

[1] https://coolcoalition.org/global-cooling-pledge/#:~:text=Commit%20to%20work%20together%20with,significant%20progress%20and%20expansion%20of

[2] https://www.pv-tech.org/cop28-118-countries-sign-pledge-to-treble-renewables-by-2030-to-11tw/  

[3] Since 2022. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker

[4] Figure for Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. All 2028 projected capacity figures are based on IEA’s analysis, with the exception of Malaysia, sourced from Global Data.

[5] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker

[6] Ibid.

[7] Ibid.

[8] Our analysis shows that Vietnam will reach 85.11 GW in capacity by 2030. Our projections are based off the annual average growth trends and projections from 2021 – 2028 by IEA (main case scenario).

[9] https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Statistics/Statistical_Profiles/Asia/Viet-Nam_Asia_RE_SP.pdf?rev=ca280115492342148b9849914dcc6ea8

[10] Ibid.

[11] Ibid.

[12] Ibid.

[13] Ibid.

[14] Our projections are based off the annual average growth trends and projections from 2021 – 2028 by IEA (main case scenario).

[15] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker

[16] Ibid.

[17] Ibid.

[18] Our projections are based off the annual average growth trends and projections from 2021 – 2028 by IEA (main case scenario).

[19] Ibid.

[20] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker.

[21] Ibid.

[22] Our projections are based off the annual average growth trends and projections from 2021 – 2028 by IEA (main case scenario).

[23] Ibid.

[24] Ibid.

[25] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker

[26] https://www.greenplan.gov.sg/targets/

[27] https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/solar-energy-to-meet-4-of-singapores-energy-demand-by-2030-up-from-less-than-1

[28] Our analysis shows that Singapore will reach 2.49 GW in capacity by 2030. Our projections are based off the annual average growth trends and projections from 2021 – 2028 by IEA (main case scenario).

[29] Based on 2023 figures. Ibid.

[30] https://energytracker.asia/renewable-energy-singapore/#:~:text=How%20Much%20of%20Singapore’s%20Energy,2%20gigawatts%20peak%20by%202030

[31] Ibid.

[32] https://www.keppel.com/en/media/newsletters/feature-stories/singapore-makes-first-renewable-energy-import/

[33] https://ember-climate.org/press-releases/regional-renewables-investment-key-to-singapores-energy-future/

[34] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/malaysia-renewable-energy

[35] https://www.eurocham.my/news/?pagedetail=4721#:~:text=As%20for%20the%20remaining%20electricity,expected%20to%20generate%2018%2C545.05MW.

[36] https://www.globaldata.com/media/power/malaysia-close-40-renewable-capacity-target-2035-says-globaldata/

[37] https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/commodities/malaysia-to-lift-export-ban-on-renewable-energy-in-accelerated-transition-plans-idUSL4N3761YH/#:~:text=Malaysia%20to%20lift%20export%20ban%20on%20renewable%20energy%20in%20accelerated%20transition%20plans,-By%20Reuters&text=KUALA%20LUMPUR%2C%20May%209%20(Reuters,affairs%20minister%20said%20on%20Tuesday

[38] https://www.reuters.com/plus/malaysias-renewable-energy-transition

[39] https://renewablewatch.in/2024/03/05/transition-roadmap-malaysias-efforts-to-modernise-its-power-sector/#:~:text=Malaysia’s%20ambitious%20goals%20require%20a,costs%20between%202023%20and%202050.