Closing the AI Capability Gap in Indonesia

Indonesia’s most advanced AI users are already operating at the global frontier. The country ranks in the global top five for ChatGPT use in Codex and data analytics, with a cohort of advanced users applying AI to the complex, high-value tasks where productivity gains are largest. That frontier capability is rare among emerging economies and points to significant potential gains across the wider workforce and economy.

This white paper, produced with support from OpenAI, examines how Indonesia can extend that frontier capability to the wider economy. The distance between the frontier cohort and the typical Indonesian user is among the widest measured anywhere. The paper defines this as Indonesia’s capability gap: the difference between what AI tools can do and how most users apply them. Closing it depends on two things working together, broadening access to capable tools and enabling advanced use for the complex tasks where returns are greatest.

Key Insights

• Indonesia has a wide capability gap: OpenAI platform data show that users at the 95th percentile in Indonesia draw on more than eleven times as many thinking tokens as the median user. This is among the widest gaps measured globally.
• Indonesia’s economic opportunity is substantial: Kearney estimates that AI could contribute up to US$366 billion to Indonesia’s GDP by 2030, more than one-third of Southeast Asia’s projected total. Realizing this potential will require businesses and workers to move beyond basic uses of AI.
• The gap is becoming more consequential over time: The largest productivity gains come from advanced use, applied to the complex, high-value tasks the frontier cohort already handles. As AI tools spread and improve, the cost of remaining at basic levels of adoption grows, and the value of closing Indonesia’s capability gap rises with it.
• Indonesia has a strong foundation for wider adoption: According to Microsoft’s Work Trend Index, 92 percent of knowledge workers use generative AI at work, while the Ipsos Global AI Monitor finds that 83 percent of Indonesians believe AI’s benefits outweigh its risks, among the highest levels of public optimism globally. The National AI Strategy 2020–2045 and the National AI Roadmap provide the basis for further policy development.

Policy Recommendations

• Support more advanced use in the private sector: Help MSMEs adopt AI as part of their wider digital transformation, incorporate adoption incentives into existing BKPM and Ministry of Finance programs, and expand workforce training and specialist certification.
• Expand public sector adoption: Establish clear mandates for agencies, test high-impact applications in priority areas, and introduce common standards for data, interoperability, and risk management.
• Focus on sectors where AI can address specific needs: Promote age-appropriate tools in education, pilot AI support for frontline healthcare workers, and expand access to enterprise-grade tools among smaller and non-urban financial institutions.
• Provide clear and adaptable regulation: Define the responsibilities of lead and supporting agencies, establish a risk-based national framework, and develop sector-specific guidance. Circular letters, ministerial regulations, and regulatory sandboxes can provide flexibility as the technology develops.

This paper was researched and produced by the Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute with support from OpenAI. The information and analysis presented are based on interviews with relevant stakeholders, publicly available information, and analysis by the authors. It does not represent the views of OpenAI. It is not intended to be an exhaustive review of policy, legislation, or regulation and should be used with due caution and consideration of its scope and limitations.

Download the full report in English here.

Laporan lengkap dalam Bahasa Indonesia dapat diunduh di sini.