Southeast Asia Trade Exposure Index

The Southeast Asia Trade Exposure Index is the first comprehensive measurement of how ASEAN economies are exposed to global trade shocks and supply chain disruptions, developed by the Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute. 

As Southeast Asia’s combined trade exceeds $3 trillion, the region faces increasing exposure to tariff escalations, supply-chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. Existing metrics, such as trade-to-GDP ratios, export growth figures, balance-of-payments data, measure the scale of trade integration but not its geoeconomic vulnerability. The Index addresses this gap by establishing a 2025 baseline that measures both how exposed Southeast Asian economies are to external shocks and how well their domestic structures may absorb disruptions. 

The Index establishes a data-driven baseline that reveals structural vulnerabilities traditional metrics miss, including concentration risks, supply chain dependencies, and internal weaknesses that amplify external shocks. It provides policymakers, investors, and analysts with a diagnostic tool to assess where vulnerabilities concentrate, how they interconnect across borders, and which scenarios would test regional cohesion most severely. 

Download the full report here.

Key Findings 

• Southeast Asian economies comprise of four distinct integration archetypes. Singapore (67.30) functions as a Hyper-Global Hub with systemic dependence on open global flows. Vietnam (62.21), Cambodia (55.12), Malaysia (50.36) and Thailand (44.48) are Export-Led Manufacturing Pivots with concentrated sectoral exposure. Brunei (51.50) and Laos (42.65) are Commodity-Anchored economies vulnerable to Chinese demand and infrastructure financing. Indonesia (22.11) and the Philippines (32.70) are Domestic-Market Anchors with low external exposure but limited manufacturing depth. These aren’t just different degrees of integration—they’re different economic structures that respond to the same shocks very differently. 

• The Index reveals why “regional shocks” affect ASEAN members in fundamentally incompatible ways. Electronics tariffs trigger manufacturing disruptions in some economies, logistics slowdowns in others, and minimal effects in several. Technology restrictions create compliance costs for certain sectors while leaving others untouched. Commodity demand shifts strain fiscal positions in resource exporters but pass unnoticed in manufacturing hubs. These aren’t variations in severity—they’re different economic events requiring opposite policy responses. Understanding this structural diversity explains both national vulnerabilities and the practical limits of collective ASEAN economic coordination. 

• High exposure does not automatically mean high vulnerability. Singapore scores highest (67.30) but possesses significant buffers—financial resources, diversified operations, control over regional supply chain flows, and ability to evolve from neutral entrepôt to trusted, compliance-intensive hub. Vietnam (62.21) has high exposure with limited domestic value-added and concentrated dependence on foreign multinationals. Understanding the difference between exposure and vulnerability is critical for policy response. 

• Sectoral composition matters more than aggregate trade ratios. Thailand’s moderate score (44.48) masks concentration in automotive and electronics—sectors facing the EV transition and U.S.-China technology competition simultaneously. Malaysia’s 50.36 reflects “broad markets, narrow products” exposure to global semiconductor cycles. The Index reveals that what countries trade, where they sit in value chains, and how concentrated their positions are determines vulnerability more than overall trade volume. 

• Regional coordination faces structural obstacles that policy cannot easily overcome. Deeper coordination would require economies experiencing opposite pressures to build costly redundancies and sacrifice competitive advantages. When Vietnam faces tariff-driven manufacturing crisis while Indonesia anchors domestically, ASEAN cannot present coherent positions because members aren’t experiencing the same crisis. The diversity that has been ASEAN’s diplomatic strength creates challenges for collective economic action when divergent exposure profiles mean fundamentally different responses are required. 

What the Index Measures 

• Trade Dependence (60%) measures export/import ratios, market concentration, and product concentration. Higher scores indicate greater exposure to external demand shocks and partner-specific disruptions. 

• Global Supply Chain Dependence (40%) assesses foreign value-added in exports, reliance on imported intermediates, FDI dependence, and employment concentration in export sectors. Higher scores indicate structures that amplify external shocks through multiple transmission channels. 

Scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating greater vulnerability to trade and supply chain disruptions. 

Policy Recommendations 

• Strengthen Domestic Supply Chain Depth: Reduce dependence on imported intermediates through supplier development, industrial upgrading, and linkages between foreign investors and local firms. Investments in logistics, energy reliability, and workforce skills enhance competitiveness within global production networks. 

• Diversify Export Markets and Products: Reduce concentration risks in specific markets or narrow product baskets. Strategic diversification provides buffers when tariff regimes shift or specific sectors weaken, without undermining existing competitive strengths. 

• Build Adaptive Regional Frameworks: Shared ASEAN frameworks for investment facilitation, regulatory transparency, digital and sustainability standards, and supply-chain security can reduce fragmentation and strengthen the region’s collective position in negotiations with external partners. 

The 2025 baseline will be updated annually, enabling longitudinal tracking of how ASEAN’s integration evolves and how effectively the region adapts to structural shifts in global production networks. 

About the Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute 

The Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute is a research institute based in Bangkok and Singapore, working across the region. The Institute’s mission is to support the development of solutions to the most pressing public policy challenges facing Southeast Asia in the 21st century. The Institute works on a range of issues across sustainability, technology, public health, trade, and governance. It convenes dialogues with stakeholders and decision makers to drive discussion on the challenges and opportunities facing markets in the region. The Institute draws on a network of in-market researchers, advisors, and partners to provide insights and recommendations for governments, policymakers, and businesses.